There both is and isn't a mazel for Israel and how the name Moshe is not reflexive.
The two opinions in Gemara about whether or not -יש מזל לישראל Israel is under the influence of "mazal" are actually both in agreement with each other מר אמר חדא ומר אמר חדא ולא פליגי.
The mazal that Israel does not have is to be under the influence of the astrological signs and heavenly מזלות.
Where Israel does have mazal is the higher concept of mazal, beyond nature. About this it states, "everything is dependent on mazal, even the sefer Torah in the heichal."
Hence, Avraham was told to leave his land, since, as Rashi explains, "here you won't have children." If Avraham was beyond the mazal already, this would not have mattered.(Even with his name change where he was told - "leave behind your astrology", it was that the mazal of "Avraham" would have children even if the name "Avram" wouldn't.)
Under the mazal, however, we could not have left Mitzrayim. For this reason Hashem says to Moshe, that he "showed himself to the Avos with the name shin-daled-yud," from the language of "he said enough! (די) to his world".
The name of Havaya however, that was not revealed to the Avos, refers to beyond nature. That is, the name shin-daled-yud is also from the language of "to break the natural order לשדד המערכת.
(This also the difference between the two names Yakov and Yisrael as the statement is "there is no mazal to Yisrael, "Yisrael" specifically. The name Yakov, meaning the heel, is the bottom of the segol, the three avos, while the name Yisrael- the accronim of "to me a head" לי ראש is the top of the segolta.)
Since Moshe Rabenu was saved from the water, if his name was to describe him, it should have been "Mashoi" משוי - "taken" from the water. Instead, Moshe is a פעול יוצא implies that he "takes others" from the water. Namely the מים הזידונים דנ׳ שערי טומאה turbulent waters of the 50 gates of impurity, when he split the sea.
Moshe represents, then, this breaking the natural order, the name Havaya that was revealed specifically to him and not to the Avos. It is for this reason that by the splitting of the sea it states that they "believed in Havaya and in Moshe." It would not make sense to say they believed in Moshe after they already believe in Hashem, rather it's this idea behind the name Moshe, to go beyond the natural order, that became clear to them.
P. 170- 172 שערי גן עדן, ט במנינו
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